Madison Avenue Spy is the guru of designer sales. Unfortunately, she says this year is going to be nowhere near as good as last year’s killer mark downs. But here’s what she predicts:

Sale season starts in November and usually culminates with the best deals in February. Right now, most department stores have slashed prices by 40%.

The next big markdown will come after Christmas when department store discounts range from 50% to 65% off. The third markdown/consolidation sale/ friends and family/ last call is when the best discounts can be found. You might have to wait until the last week of January but 70% off is when the expensive becomes affordable.

Like every year in the past, third markdown will come but we don’t expect there to be a huge inventory worth lusting over. (As a matter of fact, there wasn’t much worth lusting over at the beginning of the season.) So buy what you need and wait for what you want because prices always come around.

When I was in San Diego I found some really cute things for 40% off at Neiman Marcus. It was pre-sale at the time so I’m excited to get the dress, skirt and sweater this week when I’m back down there for Thanksgiving.